Identifying a Leading Predictor of Arctic Stratospheric Ozone for April Precipitation in Eastern North America

An analysis of the relationship between changes in Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) and precipitation eastern North America (38°–54°N, 65°–87°W; PENA) was performed using observational reanalysis data coupled with Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 (WACCM4). We found that March ASO exhibits a strong correlation PENA April, indicating one-month leading exerts potentially impact on April PENA. Changes tropospheric circulation over Pacific can be influenced by anomalies via stratosphere–troposphere interactions. Increased typically results transport drier, colder air from northwest to suppresses local convective activity enhancing regional downwelling. These conditions lead decrease atmospheric water vapor content (1000–600 hPa). Abnormally high may therefore suppress precipitation, whereas abnormally low serves enhance finding is supported WACCM4 simulations incorporating these anomaly signals. also present an ASO-based statistical linear model for predicting Results confirm reproduces both training testing periods, based ASO, demonstrating reliability stability this model. This study verifies viable predictor projecting thus improving forecasts seasonal precipitation.